Bitcoin and Ethereum face market turbulence amid $2.5B options expiry and escalating trade tensions

On April 11, 2025, the cryptocurrency market is bracing for significant volatility as over $2.5 billion in Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) options are set to expire. This event coincides with escalating global trade tensions, notably the U.S.-China tariff disputes, which have heightened market uncertainty and risk aversion.​

Key details of the options expiry:

• Bitcoin Options: Approximately 27,657 BTC options, valued at $2.23 billion, are expiring. The put-to-call ratio stands at 0.86, indicating a higher number of call options. The maximum pain point, where most options expire worthless, is identified at $81,000.​
  
• Ethereum Options: Around 183,468 ETH contracts, totaling $283.6 million, are due for expiry. The put-to-call ratio is 0.92, with a maximum pain point at $1,700.​

Current market prices:

• Bitcoin (BTC): Trading at approximately $84,904.​
• Ethereum (ETH): Trading around $1,626.​

Both cryptocurrencies are currently below their respective maximum pain points, suggesting potential for increased market pressure.​

Market sentiment and volatility:

Analysts from Deribit and Greeks.live observe a shift in trader behavior, with a growing preference for put options and a decline in call option premiums. This trend indicates expectations of prolonged market weakness. The implied volatility (IV) for Bitcoin has decreased to around 50% across all maturities, while Ethereum’s IV remains elevated, particularly in the short to medium term, hovering near 80%.​

The ongoing economic uncertainty, fueled by the U.S.-China trade war and fluctuating tariff policies, has led to increased risk aversion among investors. This environment has contributed to heightened market volatility and cautious trading behavior.